Consumer spending decelerated in March as discretionary categories struggled
Gen Merch outperforms total spending so far in 2025
Retail Trade and Food Services spending grew 0.6% YoY during the year-to-date period from January 1 to March 23, 2025, according to Earnest debit and credit card data. The growth figure represents spending from national chains to single location stores across 89 merchant category codes (MCC) in the Earnest Analytics Spend Index (EASI). Data shows growth is diverging across major categories three months into the year. General Merchandise stores, including Wholesale Clubs, Discount Stores, Department Stores, and Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores grew 4.1% YoY. Food Services and Drinking Places, and Clothing and Accessories stores underperformed.
Together, these 89 codes in the EASI approximately correspond to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) used in the Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Figures are adjusted to account for a Leap Day in 2024.
Clothing tickets fell, Food Services and General Merchandise grew
The average credit and debit card transaction size was $51.27 so far in 2025, up 0.1% YoY from $51.20 in 2024. Average ticket grew the most at General Merchandise Stores, +1.9% YoY, followed by +1.8% YoY at Food Services and Drinking Places. Gas Station tickets fell 2.5% YoY on broadly lower fuel prices.
Clothing average order values fell the most among major categories, -1.2% YoY. Clothing and Clothing Accessory Stores includes Men’s, Women’s and Children’s Uniforms and Commercial Clothing, Sports Apparel, and Leather Goods and Luggage Stores, among others.
Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey outperformed, DC lags
South Carolina, Ohio, and Louisiana saw the fastest spending growth by state. Wyoming, Massachusetts, and the District of Columbia were the slowest. The fastest growing large states (+9 million people) were Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey.
Forecast: Spending on track to decel in March
The Earnest Analytics Spend Index tracks the US Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) with over 0.9 r2 since January 2018. EASI fell 0.6% YoY in March as of the 23rd, compared to +0.3% growth in February 2025, adjusted for Leap Day. This implies a continued organic deceleration in Monthly Retail Trade Survey results reported by the Census Bureau… download report to continue reading.
