Significant number of ex-Mounjaro patients switch to Ozempic 

Earnest Analytics partnered with the BMO Capital Markets’ BioPharma team to add insight into GLP1 therapeutic usage.

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Looking to Mounjaro patient churn, we note that a significant number of patients switch to Ozempic (20% of patients in the most recent cohort) when they discontinue Mounjaro. The primary driver of this trend is likely product availability, with patients switching to what is available. During this time frame doses of both tirzepatide and semaglutide products were on the FDA shortage list. We note that patients who are unable to get a stable supply of Mounjaro switching to either Ozempic or Trulicity (the third most common switch at 6% of patients in the most recent cohort) in hopes of getting more reliable product supply. The hyper switching dynamic has begun to normalize in recent quarters, as evidenced by a reduction of patient switches to Trulicity. This is likely entirely driven by supply dynamics given what we and physicians view as a step-change in efficacy with newer GLP1+ therapeutics.

We note that while we saw an increase in patient discontinuations of those on Trulicity, many re-started therapy on Mounjaro (16% in the most recent data cut). To a lesser degree we could also see patient switches (to Ozempic) driven buy poor responses to Mounjaro. We note that this is a heterogeneous patient population where one size doesn’t fit all, a dynamic which was underscored by patient conversations and expert discussions at the recent BMO Obesity Summit (takeaway note here).… download report to continue reading.