Seattle’s delivery wage increase may explain overall restaurant sales decline

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Seattle’s restaurant delivery minimum wage laws did not just drive a 45% decline in UberEats orders, but likely depressed overall restaurant spending off delivery platforms according to Earnest credit card data. UberEats customers in Seattle spent 1.4% less YoY at Fast Casual restaurants and over 3% less at QSR restaurants in May, a steep deceleration from positive growth late last year. Uber management blamed a $4.99 city-imposed tax for the decline in sales. But instead of ordering directly through restaurants or dining in, data suggests that UberEats customers simply ate out less altogether.

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The delivery tax impacted all services, but UberEats sales declined more steeply than rival DoorDash, which increased their share of delivery spending in Seattle from 50% to 55.5% between January and May 2024.