January 2025 US Consumer Spending: fuel sales grew as spending slowed
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January 2025 US consumer spending grew 1.7% YoY according to the Earnest Analytics Spend Index powered by Vela Gamma transaction data. An acceleration in debit card spending more than offset a deceleration in credit card spending.
Results from US consumer spending by merchant category codes (MCC) in descending order of total sales:
- Grocery Stores, Supermarket (5411), which includes major grocers like Kroger and Publix, accelerated to 2.3% YoY growth
- Eating Places and Restaurants (5812), which includes casual restaurants like Olive Garden and Chili’s accelerated to 1.6% YoY growth
- Direct Marketing–Catalog Merchants (5964), which includes online ecommerce like Amazon and Temu, decelerated to 5.2% YoY growth
- Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores (5399), which includes Walmart and Target, decelerated to 3.9% YoY growth
- Fuel Dispenser, Automated (5542), which includes Shell and Exxon, accelerated to -0.2% YoY growth
- Fast Food Restaurants (5814), which includes McDonald’s and Chick-fil-A, accelerated to 1.8% YoY growth
- Wholesale Clubs (5300), which includes Costco and Sam’s Club, accelerated to 10.4% YoY growth
- Department Stores (5311), which includes Nordstrom and Kohl’s, decelerated to 1.4% YoY growth
- Men’s and Women’s Clothing Stores (5691), which includes Old Navy and Abercrombie, decelerated to -3.8% YoY growth
- Equipment, Furniture, and Home Furnishings Stores except Appliances (5712), which includes Wayfair and Williams Sonoma, decelerated to -2.1% YoY growth
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About the Earnest Analytics Spend Index:
The Earnest Analytics Spend Index (EASI) is an alternative data-driven measure of consumer spending that tracks spend across 89 merchant category codes (MCC), encompassing thousands of US merchants. The near real-time data is derived from the credit and debit spend of millions of de-identified US consumers. Advantages of using EASI include faster macro signals and insight into geographic, shopper income, and credit vs debit trends.
Historical numbers can vary due to methodology updates.
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