February 2025 US Consumer Spending: economic blackout and slowing activity
US consumer spending fell in February
February 2025 US consumer spending fell 3.4% YoY according to the Earnest Analytics Spend Index powered by Vela Gamma transaction data. Part of the weakness in February 2025 is lapping a Leap Year in 2024 with one additional day. Accounting for Leap Year, the February consumer spending was flat.
However growth slowed as the month progressed, reaching its lowest point on February 28th. That day’s decline coincided with a grassroots movement to boycott non-essential spending at major companies. The decline also comes as major companies like Target warn consumer spending is slowing in 2025, while tariffs could edge prices higher as soon as this week.
‘Economic Blackout’ hurt most categories, but not ecommerce
Debit and credit card spending fell 7.4% YoY on February 28th according to Earnest credit card data. That was the day some grassroots organizations encouraged “economic resistance” by eschewing spending at major corporations. It was the weakest day for sales growth in February, excluding the YoY lapping effect of Valentine’s Day.
Debit card sales declined the most on February 28th, down 10.7%, while credit card sales declined 6.2% YoY.
Eating Places and Restaurants (MCC 5812) registered the biggest deceleration on February 28th. This was down 15.4% YoY and decelerating from low-single digit growth most of the month.
Wholesales Clubs (MCC 5300) sales decelerated from mid-teens growth in the prior week, to down 11.3% YoY on February 28th.
Equipment, Furniture, and Home Furnishings Stores except Appliances (5712) sales decelerated to -10.5% YoY from a -4.4% YoY 7-day trailing average.
Grocery Stores, Supermarket (5411), Fast Food Restaurants (5814), Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores (5399), and Men’s and Women’s Clothing Stores (5691) all experienced meaningful sales declines.
Direct Marketing–Catalog Merchants (5964), which includes online ecommerce like Amazon and Temu, did not experience a significant sales decline. Growth averaged low-single digits, similar to the days immediately prior.
Restaurant and General Merchandise lead spending decline
Results from US consumer spending by merchant category codes (MCC) in descending order of total sales:
- Grocery Stores, Supermarket (5411), which includes major grocers like Kroger and Publix, decelerated to -1.0% YoY growth
- Eating Places and Restaurants (5812), which includes casual restaurants like Olive Garden and Chili’s decelerated to -5.1% YoY growth
- Direct Marketing–Catalog Merchants (5964), which includes online ecommerce like Amazon and Temu, decelerated to 3.1% YoY growth
- Miscellaneous General Merchandise Stores (5399), which includes Walmart and Target, decelerated to -1.7% YoY growth
- Fuel Dispenser, Automated (5542), which includes Shell and Exxon, decelerated to -6.9% YoY growth
- Fast Food Restaurants (5814), which includes McDonald’s and Chick-fil-A, decelerated to -4.2% YoY growth
- Wholesale Clubs (5300), which includes Costco and Sam’s Club, decelerated to 5.8% YoY growth
- Department Stores (5311), which includes Nordstrom and Kohl’s, decelerated to -2.7% YoY growth
- Men’s and Women’s Clothing Stores (5691), which includes Old Navy and Abercrombie, decelerated to -6.7% YoY growth
- Equipment, Furniture, and Home Furnishings Stores except Appliances (5712), which includes Wayfair and Williams Sonoma, decelerated to -8.4% YoY growth
This economic report is published monthly as data is available.
About the Earnest Analytics Spend Index:
The Earnest Analytics Spend Index (EASI) is an alternative data-driven measure of consumer spending that tracks spend across 89 merchant category codes (MCC), encompassing thousands of US merchants. The near real-time data is derived from the credit and debit spend of millions of de-identified US consumers. Advantages of using EASI include faster macro signals and insight into geographic, shopper income, and credit vs debit trends.
Historical numbers can vary due to methodology updates.
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