Early holiday sales winners of 2024

According to Earnest transaction data, big box retailers Walmart and Amazon had the highest percentage of shoppers participating in their early holiday sales events in October, at 19% and 17%, respectively. This is meaningfully higher than the 2% of shoppers who participated in Walmart’s July sale, and about the same for Amazon. The increase in participation is likely due to Walmart’s sale having been available on all channels this October, not just online. Target’s sale, which ran both online and in-store, also had a relatively high participation rate at 12% of their shopper base. Meanwhile, competitors Wayfair, Kohl’s, and Best Buy all had participation rates between 1%-4% of their respective annual shopper counts.

Similar to summer promotional events, shoppers have become accustomed to deep discount flash sales before the holidays. Often referred to as “holiday creep or “Black October,” retailers in recent years have increasingly been jumpstarting their sales to elongate the spending season. This will be particularly crucial this year, since the window between Thanksgiving and Christmas is almost one week shorter than it was in 2023. Early holiday sales like these have become customer loyalty events that retailers use to activate some of their best shoppers in time for the holidays. Many customers shop various sales throughout the month, but most shoppers stick to a single sale. Less than 1% of total sale shoppers make purchases at 3 or more promotional events.