High customer concentration among QSR brands suggest outsized Ozempic impact

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The top 10% of customers at major fast food brands accounted for 39%-47% of total spending in 2023 according to Earnest credit card data. Well over half of sales at Chick-Fil-A, Carl’s Jr, Del Taco, Jack In The Box, and Shake Shack come from just the most loyal 20% of customers. This reliance on the top deciles of customers could imperil fast food restaurants, also known as quick service restaurants (QSR), should top buyers adopt GLP-1 medications like Ozempic. 

Some GLP-1 users are already buying fewer groceries at stores like Walmart. Even a small decrease in spending by QSR’s biggest customers would have an outsized impact on total revenue with such a high concentration of top tier buyers.

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