Chili’s Tops Restaurant Growth Rankings in 2024

Restaurant sales decelerated from +5.3% YoY in 2023 to +1.8% YoY in 2024 according to Earnest credit card data. Rising costs, new wage laws, and a general focus on value all challenged restaurants in 2024.  But several brands were able to grow and take share during the year. In some cases, brands flexed pricing muscles to stay relevant. In the Casual Dining category, one brand in particular stood out.

Casual Dining: Chili’s, Texas Roadhouse, and Firebirds led

A pandemic and the rise of delivery aggregators put pressure on Casual Dining in recent years. But there are some bright spots in the category heading into 2025. Chili’s (EAT) outpaced the broader Casual Dining category, growing an impressive 15.0% YoY in 2024. Brands emphasizing value saw success as Casual Dining’s value perception reached a five-year high in 2024.

Chili’s defies industry downturn with strong Gen Z appeal

Digging into the Casual Dining leader, Chili’s sales accelerated 8.9% on a trailing-12-month basis between January 2024 and 2025. The Brinker chain’s success contrasts with a -3.5% decline in the Casual Dining category during the same period. Restaurant spending as a whole also declined by -3.1%. Sales and transactions at Chili’s continue to accelerate into 2025, with no signs of slowing down.

While sales increased across all demographics, Chili’s performed exceptionally well with 18-24-year-olds. Sales among Gen Z accelerated 23.5%, likely influenced by TikTok trends. About 150 million posts on TikTok are dedicated to the Triple-Dipper, a fan-favorite dish at Chili’s. An emphasis on value also helped… download report to continue reading.