California wage law resulting in rising average ticket, declining transactions

California Average QSR Ticket Rising

California Law AB1228 went into effect on April 1, 2024, increasing minimum wage for fast food workers from $16 to $20 an hour. During April 2024, quick service restaurant (QSR) average ticket growth accelerated to 5.1% YoY in California, compared to 1.4% YoY nationally, according to Earnest credit card data. 

In response to the new legislation, Chipotle reported a 6% to 7% menu price increase at their California locations in their 1Q2024 earnings call. Shake Shack similarly noted a 7% increase in their California menu prices, compared to 2% to 2.5% price increases in all other regions.

See chart in Dash.

California QSR Transaction Growth Declining

In April, QSR customers in California experienced higher average ticket growth than the national average, though the number of transactions declined year-over-year. California’s QSR transaction growth slowed to -3.5% YoY, compared to a nearly flat -0.2% YoY nationally.

See chart in Dash.